Global Trade

Compiling trade information globally is a time consuming and complex task with many areas where errors can occur. These can often distort analysis and subsequent decisions.

TradeData can undertake this task at lower cost, supplying more up to date data and importantly more accurate information, than doing it yourself. This is TradeDatas key competency, TradeData can:

            Compile trade information exports or imports for most major countries around the world;

            Standardise the information for example standardise country names, product classifications, currencies, units of quantity;

            Quality control - the information will take account of data errors, changes in classifications over time, confidentiality restrictions and others so on;

            Identify and analyse individual market segments within a single product classification. 

• Entry India is a New Jersey, USA based LLC founded in 2006 with the purpose of connecting US small & medium size enterprises (SMEs) and NRIs (Non-Resident Indians) to opportunities in India.

Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch seeks to ensure that in this era of globalization, all Americans can enjoy economic security, a clean environment, safe food, medicines and products, access to quality affordable services such as health care and the exercise of democratic decision-making in matters that affect them and their communities. Learn more about GTW.

The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9% in volume terms in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War, WTO economists forecast today (25 March 2009). “Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these economic doldrums. In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy.

The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9% in volume terms¹ in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War, WTO economists forecast today. The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10% this year. In developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2%-3% in 2009, WTO economists say.

Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export declines already posted in the early months of this year by most major economies — particularly those in Asia — makes for an unusually bleak 2009 trade assessment, said the WTO in its annual assessment of global trade.

Signs of the sharp deterioration in trade were evident in the latter part of 2008 as demand sagged and production slowed. Although world trade grew by 2% in volume terms for the whole of 2008 it tapered off in the last six months and was well down on the 6% volume increase posted in 2007.

“For the last 30 years trade has been an ever increasing part of economic activity, with trade growth often outpacing gains in output. Production for many products is sourced around the world so there is a multiplier effect — as demand falls sharply overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds available for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade flows, in particular in developing countries,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy.

“As a consequence, many thousands of trade related jobs are being lost. Governments must avoid making this bad situation worse by reverting to protectionist measures which in reality protect no nation and threaten the loss of more jobs. We are carefully monitoring trade policy developments. The use of protectionist measures is on the rise. The risk is increasing of such measures choking off trade as an engine of recovery. We must be vigilant because we know that restricting imports only leads your trade partner to follow suit and hit your exports. Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these economic doldrums. In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective,” Mr. Lamy said.

In projecting trade growth for 2009, we assume a normal pattern for a recession, where trade falls, remains weak for a time and then resumes its upward trajectory and begins to return to its previous trend. If this basic scenario holds, world merchandise trade is likely to fall some 9% in volume terms in 2009 (ie, where price changes have been removed from the calculation), with developed economy exports falling by some 10% on average and developing country exports shrinking by 2—3%.

Trade prospects for 2009 are heavily conditioned by the financial crisis that began almost two years ago in the United States. The crisis intensified dramatically following the collapse of the Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers in September of last year, and the government-led rescue of a number of financial institutions in the United States and elsewhere. Turmoil in the financial sector and acute credit shortages spread inexorably to the real sector. Declining asset prices, faltering demand and falling production translated into dramatically reduced and in some cases negative production and trade growth in many countries. Trade has also been affected adversely by a sharp shrinkage in credit to finance imports and exports.

Global Trade

Although the crisis began in the United States, financial institutions and economies throughout the developed and developing world have been severely affected. The deteriorating economic situation has taken a toll on both consumer and business confidence, and produced a negative feedback between the financial sector and the rest of the economy that dominates the outlook for 2009.

The months since last September have seen precipitous drops in global production and trade, first in the developed economies, then in developing ones as well. Indexes calculated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) of composite leading indicators for the major industrial economies have plunged to January 2009, indicating a high probability of a continuing decline in economic activity. Governments have tried a variety of policy measures to address the economic crisis, including bailouts for banks that are important for the economic and financial system, and, more recently, mortgage assistance for struggling home owners in the United States. All of this is in addition to monetary and fiscal policies that have been deployed since the start of the crisis. Conventional monetary policy may be reaching the limits of its effectiveness, with interest rates in the United States and elsewhere approaching zero. The timing of the recovery may now depend on how effective are proposed fiscal stimulus plans, which currently amount to more than 3% of world production.

Since the recession began to take hold in the fourth quarter of 2008 there has been little cause for optimism in the outlook for trade in 2009. The financial crisis has disrupted the normal functioning of the banking system and deprived firms and individuals of much-needed credit. Falling stock markets and housing prices have also administered negative shocks to wealth in the United States and elsewhere, making households unwilling to purchase durable goods such as automobiles while they attempt to rebuild their savings. Falling commodity prices, while a boon to consumers in importing countries, have also deprived oil-producing countries of export revenues.

Not even China, with its dynamic economy, can insulate itself from global downturn when most of its main trading partners are in recession. China’s exports to its top six trading partners (treating the EU as a single partner) represented 70% of the country’s total exports in 2007. All of these trading partners are currently experiencing economic contraction or slowdown and are likely to exhibit weak import demand for some time.

Available monthly data for most major traders show large drops in merchandise exports and imports through the first two months of 2009. An exception to this pattern of decline in trade flows is discernible for certain economies in Asia, where positive monthly import growth numbers were recorded for China (17 per cent) and also for Singapore, Chinese Taipei and Vietnam. While this is only a single month of data, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously, it could be evidence of slowing decline and perhaps a “bottoming out” of negative trade growth trends. Future trade growth will, of course, depend on what happens to demand elsewhere in the world economy.

Moreover, the question must be asked as to how far trade could conceivably fall in the months ahead. As an example, consider China’s exports. In February these were down 26% compared with the same month in the previous year and 28% compared with January. If one were to extrapolate this downturn, China’s exports would be approaching zero within ten months to a year. This is obviously a highly implausible scenario and emphasizes the reality that such steep declines as those we have witnessed recently will not persist.
  The global economic crisis of 2008-2009 led to a sharp reduction of growth worldwide with an increase in millions of poor persons. The World Bank Group responded with an unprecedented expansion of support, especially to middle income countries. This new study, the second part of a two-phase evaluation of the institution’s response to the global economic crisis, reaffirms and extends many findings of the first phase of the report.

Global Trade

Global Trade Alert provides real-time information on state measures taken during the current global downturn that are likely to affect foreign commerce. It goes beyond other monitoring initiatives by identifying the trading partners likely to be harmed by these measures.

The enormous size of this city became clear to me when my bus to Bombay took it’s job literally and dropped me next to the ‘welcome in Bombay’ sign at 4 o’clock at night. Judging from the slum-like surroundings, I figured this was not the area of the Taj Mahal hotel where Bombay’s salvation army manages a budget-hostel. I was lucky to find a capdriver who explained that a drive to my destination would take another hour and cost 6 times the bus fair I just payed my nightbusdriver. Fortunately he could take me to the metro for a considerable lower fare and so, with the sun rising over Bombay, I took the first commuter-packed metro-ride into town.

Aside from the general travel-experiences, each encounter with a GTP-talent was filled with small cultural and ethnic extraordinaries that gave me a small insight in their totally unique and different world. At the same time, despite their apparent dissimilarities, they consistently had a few things in common: they all love what they are doing, they are ambitiouse to improve their skills and their life, they are full of energy, they dare to take matters in their own hands and change their ways and are not afraid to experiment with new concepts. Above all, they seem happy with their life.

The Trade, Law, and Development journal has a special issue on WTO dispute settlement. I have a piece in it on the development of standards of appellate review, focusing a bit on appeals of factual issues and issues related to the application of the law to the facts.

As I was writing it, it occurred to me that it would be useful for someone with expertise in domestic appellate review to take a look at these issues. I felt like I was a bit out of my comfort zone at times.

But the part of it that I did find interesting, and I think made the piece worthwhile, was the realization that the DSU Article 11 language predates the WTO. The same language existed under the GATT, where there was no appellate mechanism.  And in the first couple appeals after the WTO came into being, there was no mention of DSU Article 11.  But soon DSU Article 11 as the basis for appellate arguments caught on, and now it surfaces in most appeals.

The major ocean carriers operating on the eastbound transpacific trade route connecting Asia and the U.S. have said they will be hiking their base rates on both dry and refrigerated container cargoes, effective August 1 and August 15, respectively.

According to the 15-member Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA), the rates on dry cargo will range from an average of $500 per-FEU (forty-foot container) to $700 per-FEU from Asia to the U.S. West Coast.

The lines have also said they will recommend that the rates on refrigerated cargo be boosted by $1,000 per FEU to the U.S. West Coast and $1,250 per FEU for all other destinations.

“While refrigerated cargoes such as seafood represent a relatively small share of total cargo eastbound, they make an important contribution to the round-trip cost of managing expensive equipment that is in high demand on the U.S.-Asia return,” the TSA said in a statement.

The group said that the overall rate increases are aimed at helping its members “stabilize recent volatility, boost rates to better accommodate growing demand, and establish a more compensatory baseline for subsequent negotiation of 2013 longer-term contracts.”

The HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast, produced with Delta Economics, forecasts growth despite global economic difficulties, notably in Europe.

During the next five years, U.S. exports are expected to rise fastest to emerging markets led by increases of more than 8 percent annually to Peru, Turkey and Brazil.

A number of World Trade Organization member economies are exploring a new international agreement in Geneva that could provide the foundation for multilateral consensus on liberalization of trade in services.

“The services discussion is one of the most constructive and productive activities happening in Geneva right now,” U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said in a July 5 statement, adding that partners in the talks “are moving forward.”

Kirk said the services talks are part of an overall goal to reinforce and enhance the organization’s rules-based trading system.

“I’m confident that this effort has the potential to expand, succeed and ultimately strengthen the multilateral trading system, facilitating global trade in services and supporting jobs for workers in this vital sector,” Kirk said.

Economies participating in the negotiations on trade in services have included Australia; Canada; Costa Rica; the European Union; Hong Kong; Israel; Japan; Mexico; New Zealand; Norway; Pakistan; Peru; the Republic of Korea; Switzerland; Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu; Turkey; and the United States.

In a collective statement, the members said the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) provides a strong foundation for liberalizing services trade, but that, at the same time, there have been considerable developments since the agreement entered into force in 1995.

Global Trade